Mike Kehoe keeps saying he's running again. Why does everyone keep asking?

Good morning,

Election Day is less than two weeks away, so naturally we’re talking about 2028. 

More specifically, the question that’s been making the rounds in Missouri political circles for months: Will Gov. Mike Kehoe run for a second term?

He’s answered that question so many times it barely qualifies as news anymore.

In June, he was asked whether he planned to seek another term. Kehoe didn’t hesitate. He said yes.

Asked last month during a stop in St. Peters, Kehoe said he intends to run in 2028 “if Missourians will have us again.”

He faced the question again days later and told Nexstar the decision was a family one. 

“We thought about it,” he said. “We prayed about it.”

On former House Speaker Elijah Haahr’s radio show, State Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick was asked whether he’d run for governor if Kehoe didn’t. Fitzpatrick said he’d consider it, then emphasized that Kehoe has been “very clear both in public and in private settings” that he’s running.

Kehoe has been consistent and clear. So why does everyone keep asking?

Part of the answer is Andrew Bailey.

The former attorney general returned to Missouri after a reportedly rough year at the FBI and almost immediately began sounding like a candidate. His allied PAC has more than half a million dollars in the bank. He’s talked with people in Missouri politics about the governor’s office. 

When Haahr asked whether any statewide Republican deserves a primary challenge, Bailey didn’t say no. He said to give him a year at home “and let’s have that conversation.” Then last week, Bailey publicly criticized the decision to give St. Louis' police chief a substantial raise. The board that approved it is dominated by Kehoe appointees.

Asked by reporters whether he could beat Bailey in a primary, Kehoe said: “I'm not thinking about running against Andrew.”

But Bailey didn’t create all the questions about Kehoe’s future. Those were already circulating. 

Kehoe has been remarkably effective at getting a fractious Republican legislature to do what he wants. He persuaded lawmakers to approve a massive incentive package to keep the Chiefs and Royals in Missouri. He secured votes for his tax agenda, helped push through a gerrymandered congressional map and has put his stamp on the state’s education leadership.

The trouble is what happened after lawmakers said yes.

The Chiefs are moving to Kansas.

In August, voters overwhelmingly rejected Amendment 5, which would have put Missouri on a path toward eliminating its income tax. Amendment 4, the effort to rewrite the rules for citizen initiatives, lost badly alongside it.

The congressional map Kehoe signed into law won't be used Nov. 3, either. A successful referendum effort and a string of court rulings derailed Republican hopes of capturing seven of Missouri's eight congressional seats this year.

Along the way, Kehoe’s approval rating slipped underwater in the SLU/YouGov poll: 40% approving, 49% disapproving.

None of this proves he’s reconsidering. It does help explain why some Republicans wonder whether he wants to do it all again.

Kehoe has never been a favorite of the party’s right flank. He won the 2024 Republican primary with about 39% in a three-way race. One of his opponents, Bill Eigel, recently called on someone to stop “this derailing train.”

And now comes another Election Day.

Republicans are defending their legislative supermajorities. Losing three House seats would end one; losing two Senate seats would end the other.

Amendment 3, which would restore Missouri’s near-total abortion ban, is personal for Kehoe: His wife, Claudia, is treasurer of the campaign supporting it. 

A good night gives Kehoe something to point to. A bad one gives his doubters another reason to keep asking.

For now, the evidence points one direction. He says he’s running. He’s raising money. He has given no sign he’s going anywhere.

He keeps answering the question. The question keeps coming back.

That probably says less about his plans than about how his first two years have gone.