Mike Kehoe isn’t on the August ballot. But his political capital is.

Good morning, and welcome to The Weekender,

Mike Kehoe’s name will not appear on the Aug. 4 ballot.

But it would be hard to look at Missouri’s August primary and say the governor is not, in some meaningful way, on it.

He picked the fight, picked the date and picked sides in races that will help determine how much leverage he has for the rest of his term. Each of those was a bet. August is when they get called.

The biggest bet is Amendment 5, the plan to give state lawmakers authority to raise sales and use taxes in order to phase out the income tax. Kehoe didn’t inherit that issue from lawmakers. He made eliminating the income tax the central tax promise of his administration, pushed for the constitutional amendment and then used his power as governor to move it from the general election in November to the August primary, where the electorate is smaller and more partisan. 

Kehoe has also invested himself in a handful of Republican Senate primaries. He has held fundraisers for Jake Vogel in central Missouri and Brad Pollitt in west-central Missouri, both of whom are running in crowded fields of GOP candidates. In Jackson County, House Speaker Jon Patterson’s Senate bid carries its own Kehoe connection: Patterson was considering leaving the race and was persuaded to stay in, at least in part, by the governor.

Kehoe spent years in the Senate, both as a member and then as lieutenant governor. He knows better than most that a governor’s agenda can live or die there, and not only on final votes. It can die in committee. It can die in a caucus meeting. It can die because one or two senators decide the governor is not someone they owe.

That is the risk of getting involved in primaries. Wins build leverage. Losses create witnesses.

That would matter even if Amendment 5 passes. It matters more if it doesn’t.

A defeat for the tax amendment would be a major setback for Kehoe. The governor could still point to bills he has signed and budgets he has shaped. But eliminating the income tax is the sort of promise that defines an administration. If voters reject it, the question in Jefferson City will not simply be what happens next on tax policy. It will be whether Kehoe can sell his biggest idea to the public and whether lawmakers still see him as the party’s most effective messenger.

Kehoe is not up for reelection this year. But elections do not only measure candidates.

Sometimes they measure power.

And in Missouri this year, a lot of Mike Kehoe’s power is on the ballot.