Five questions about Missouri’s election

Good morning,

Missouri voters keep rejecting some of the GOP’s biggest ideas. Then they keep electing Republicans to run the state.

Two years ago, voters protected abortion rights and approved paid sick leave. In August, they overwhelmingly rejected proposals to overhaul the tax system and make constitutional amendments harder to pass.

Yet Republicans hold every statewide elected office, six of eight congressional seats and supermajorities in both legislative chambers.

On Tuesday, voters will revisit several of those disagreements. Here are five questions I’m watching.

You’d think so.

In 2024, voters approved Amendment 3, enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution. Republican lawmakers responded by putting another amendment on the ballot.

So we’re doing this again?

Yes, but not quite the same way.

Amendment 3 would repeal those protections and restore a ban on most abortions, with limited exceptions. It would also constitutionally prohibit gender-affirming medical care for minors.

Wait, it’s also Amendment 3?

Yes. Missouri recycles amendment numbers. Political arguments, too.

This time around, a yes vote bans abortion and a no vote keeps it legal.

What do the polls say?

An August SLU/YouGov poll found 43% in favor, 44% opposed and 13% undecided.

A small but vocal minority of anti-abortion activists oppose the amendment, arguing the proposed ban doesn’t go far enough. Meanwhile, Amendment 3’s supporters have mounted a more organized campaign than they did two years ago, particularly through churches working to mobilize voters.

The question is whether the coalition that protected abortion rights in 2024 will hold together in the face of that effort.

Wagner has seen this movie before.

In 2018, Democrats gained dozens of U.S. House seats. Wagner survived, winning her suburban St. Louis district by about four points. She’s won every election since.

At some point, Democrats might wonder whether the district is actually competitive or just enjoys making them think it is.

So why is this year different?

An October Emerson College poll showed Democratic challenger Fred Wellman leading Wagner 51% to 46%. Other surveys have shown tighter margins.

Last week, Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the district from leaning Republican to a toss-up. The result could offer a window into whether the suburban backlash against Republicans that defined 2018 is returning eight years later.

That depends on your definition of over.

After more than a year of Republican maneuvering and courtroom battles, the gerrymandered version of Missouri’s congressional map is finally on the ballot. The GOP-drawn map, designed to help Republicans win seven of eight U.S. House seats, won’t be used Tuesday. 

But Proposition A will determine its fate in future elections.

Remind me how that works.

A yes vote approves the Republican-drawn map for future elections. A no vote rejects it.

So a no vote ends the whole thing?

Not necessarily.

Some Republicans have already floated trying again in 2027.

If voters reject Proposition A, another item on the ballot called Amendment 6 could — if it passes — make another gerrymander much, much harder. But more on that later. 

No. No, they will not. 

Democrats haven’t controlled either chamber of the Missouri legislature since 2002. And nobody is talking seriously about a Democratic takeover this year.

But they don’t need one to change how Jefferson City operates.

What does that mean?

A net gain of three House seats or two Senate seats would end the GOP’s two-thirds majority in the respective chamber.

That would mean Republicans could no longer override a governor’s veto or pass emergency clauses allowing new laws to take effect immediately without Democratic support.

And Republicans are taking the threat very seriously, spending heavily to defend districts that weren’t considered competitive just a few months ago.

Where should we look Tuesday?

The suburbs, obviously. But also rural Missouri.

Democrats haven’t won a predominantly rural House district since 2010. Whether they can expand beyond their traditional strongholds may tell us more about the party’s future than the final seat count alone.

Back where we started.

Missourians have voted for abortion rights, Medicaid expansion, a higher minimum wage and paid sick leave. Republican lawmakers have tried to reverse or limit nearly all of them.

Which brings us to Amendment 6?

Exactly.

Amendment 6 would require 80% support in both legislative chambers and another statewide vote to change laws or constitutional amendments approved by initiative, or enact laws similar to those rejected by referendum (see also: Proposition A).

But are Missouri voters turning against Republicans themselves?

Consider the auditor’s race, the only statewide office on the ballot.

Republican Scott Fitzpatrick won by nearly 22 points in 2022. He has substantially outraised Democratic challenger Quentin Wilson and the contest has attracted relatively little attention.

Yet an August poll showed Fitzpatrick ahead by just two points, within the margin of error.

The result could be revealing even if Fitzpatrick wins. Does he approach his margin from four years ago, or is the race closer?

One result won’t establish a political realignment. But taken with the Wagner race, legislative contests and ballot measures, it could tell us whether rejecting Republican ideas is starting to translate into rejecting Republican candidates.

Or whether Missourians will keep saying no to Republican policies and yes to Republican politicians.